Old and Sad – Let’s not get too excited
Labour have met expectations and won the Oldham East and Saddleworth by-election. I should probably be overjoyed, reinvigorated and enthused by this but, strangely I’m not. I know exactly why too.
With this election, I don’t think it’s entirely clear whether it was a Labour victory or a coalition loss. By my reckoning, the figures seem more likely to back the latter than the former.
Image courtesy of the BBC
Labour, in May, got 14,186 votes. Yesterday’s election gained 532 votes. Tories saw a massive reduction in votes, which if I were them would be worried about, from 11,773 to 4,481-a haemorrhage of 7,292 votes . There was also a significant drop in Lib Dem voters, from 14,083 to 11,160-2,923 votes lost if you want me to do the maths.
Now let’s make a wild, unproven assumption. Let’s assume the votes lost by Tories and Lib-Dems, 10,215, were all floating voters. Of that 10,000, 93 went to other candidates but, worryingly for Labour, only 532 voters came to Labour. 9,590 stayed at home.
What does this tell me? It tells me that the coalition should be very worried. I cannot abide the nonsensical fools saying that more people voted for the coalition than Labour, just as much as I wanted every Labour supporter in May saying that more voted against the Tories to hush up.
These “stats” benefit no-one, muddy the serious debate and portray the person using them as a simpleton. They are the very definition of skewed and biased and distressingly desperate-a sign of someone who has run out of serious points and is too arrogant to admit the truth. I say this to anyone-Labour, Tory or Lib Dem-making this argument.
This face saving technique that isn’t going to work as these “stats” seem to neglect the fact that the coalition lost over 10,000 votes.
This was mass apathy against the coalition. They should be worried by that, especially the Conservatives as their drop is, in my opinion, a clear indicator that their financial plans are not gaining the support of the non-partisan public and a sign that they may be losing the public argument for their policies. Apathy can be just as much a killer as people voting against you and the Conservatives need to take this in to account.
That being said, Labour cannot get carried away. I think Ed Miliband is perfectly correct in saying that this is a vote against the coalition but Labour have more to do. Because Labour didn’t win more than 500 people’s vote they are just as much in danger of suffering from public apathy in a future election. Ed Miliband hasn’t positioned himself as a leader yet, neither have Labour produced enough policies and solutions to do the same. I understand this is because of a full scale review-much like a business’ strategic review-but Labour cannot down tools whilst this happens.
It’s not all doom and gloom though. Labour has strong foundations to build on and to start becoming more confident in debating policy. The party has been too quiet and too timid so far but for a few, Burnham and Balls being two excellent examples. I have faith that Miliband’s review can reap benefits over time, however there may not be the time. If this coalition fails and the rumoured snap election is called, then Labour is in trouble. The argument hasn’t been made and there will be a sudden scramble to get Labour’s faces and policies out there. Whilst I think the public consultation on policy is good for Labour, I wonder if now is the right time to do it and if the time is there for it to be completed whilst there is no one-party majority.
